Last Updated: January 20, 2019

# Dragon Dragon Baccarat Progressive

## Introduction

The Dragon Dragon Baccarat Progressive is a baccarat side bet I first saw at the Gold Coast in Las Vegas on January 25, 2017. It pays based on the combined cards of the Player and Banker hands. Winning hands range from a three of a kind out of four total cards up to a six of a kind.

## Rules

1. The wager is a flat amount, either \$1, \$2, or \$5, depending on the decision of casino management.
2. Wins are based on all cards in the Player and Banker hands.
3. Following is the pay table. Wins are expressed on a "for one" basis.

### Pay Table

Event \$1 bet \$2 bet \$5 bet
Six of a kind Jackpot
Five of a kind 10% of Jackpot
Double three of a kind \$250 \$500 \$1,500
Four of a kind \$50 \$100 \$300
Three of a kind out of four cards \$25 \$50 \$150

Notes:
* Jackpot divided among all players who made the Dragon Dragon bet.
** The two three of a kinds can be mixed between the Player and Banker hands. For example, if the Player had QQK and the Banker had KQQ, it would count.
*** Only four total cards qualify for this win. If either the Player and/or Banker draw a card, then any chance of this win will be lost.

## Analysis

Following is my analysis of the Dragon Dragon for \$1 and \$2 bets. Wins are expressed on a "for one" basis, meaning relative to the bet amount and that wagers are never returned, even on a win. The following table shows the same thing for a \$5 bet.

### Dragon Dragon Return Table for \$1 and \$2 bets

Event Pays Combinations Probability Return
Six of a kind Jackpot 5,872,124,160 0.00000117 x
Five of a kind 10% of jackpot 351,070,863,360 0.00007024 y
Double three of a kind 250 616,417,689,600 0.00012332 0.030831
Four of a kind 50 12,273,961,559,040 0.00245558 0.122779
Three of a kind out of four cards 25 32,896,683,048,960 0.00658144 0.164536
Loser 0 4,952,254,270,218,240 0.99076824 0.000000
Total   4,998,398,275,503,360 1.00000000 0.318146+x+y

### Dragon Dragon Return Table for a \$5 bet

Event Pays Combinations Probability Return
Six of a kind Jackpot 5,872,124,160 0.00000119 x
Five of a kind 10% of jackpot 351,070,863,360 0.00007089 y
Double three of a kind 300 616,417,689,600 0.00012447 0.037342
Four of a kind 60 12,273,961,559,040 0.00247846 0.148708
Three of a kind out of four cards 30 32,896,683,048,960 0.00664277 0.199283
Loser 0 4,952,254,270,218,240 1.00000000 0.000000
Total   4,998,398,275,503,360 1.00931778 0.385332+x+y

The return of the fixed pay awards is 31.81% for \$1 and \$2 bets. For \$5 bets, it is 38.18%.

The next table shows the break-even meter (the point at which there is no house advantage), depending on the bet size and number of players, including yourself.

### Additional Return per \$10,000 in the Meter

Players \$1 bet \$2 bet \$5 bet
1 1.877% 0.939% 0.375%
2 0.939% 0.469% 0.188%
3 0.626% 0.313% 0.125%
4 0.469% 0.235% 0.094%
5 0.375% 0.188% 0.075%
6 0.313% 0.156% 0.063%
7 0.268% 0.134% 0.054%
8 0.235% 0.117% 0.047%

The next table shows the break-even meter, at which point there is no house advantage, depending on the bet size and number of players, including yourself.

### Break-even Points

Players \$1 bet \$2 bet \$5 bet
1 \$83,168.48 \$166,336.96 \$377,036.89
2 \$166,336.96 \$332,673.92 \$754,073.77
3 \$249,505.44 \$499,010.89 \$1,131,110.66
4 \$332,673.92 \$665,347.85 \$1,508,147.54
5 \$415,842.41 \$831,684.81 \$1,885,184.43
6 \$499,010.89 \$998,021.77 \$2,262,221.32
7 \$582,179.37 \$1,164,358.74 \$2,639,258.20